I will admit that I’ve been trying not to talk too much about a Republican landslide tomorrow—the kind that sweeps out the career Democrat pols in Congress and replaces them with those who are not stained by the insidious corruption of the Beltway. Not that Republicans are perfect—or haven’t gotten tainted by the same dirty water. They have. But the class of new Republicans in this election is different, and offers more in the way of principle than pure pork-barrel politics. Lord knows how long they will be able to hang on to their principles once they get exposed to the lobbyists, unions and other bearers of kryptonite that skulk the halls of Congress. But at least we know that we start from a base which overwhelmingly believes in small government, smaller deficits and the power of individual liberty. That’s huge in my book.
In any event, I’m not going to make but a few general predictions here. But I will link here to an interesting analysis so you can draw more of your own conclusions:
Jay Cost, writing at The Weekly Standard, predicts a huge landslide. His rationale is similar to the post I did earlier on the bias of polls. He argues that if you look at the Democrat oversampling of polls since the 1994 election and look at the actual result, only Gallup has gotten close to being accurate. And very accurate, indeed—within a point. Thus, Cost sees Gallup as the true poll for this election. Though Gallup doesn’t poll individual races, their general Final Likely Voter Projection provides some clear evidence of the extent of Republican gains tomorrow night. Their generic voter preference for a 45% turnout of national adults is 55% for the Republican candidate and only 40 percent for the Democratic candidate.
According to Cost, this is HUGE:
A victory of 15 points suggests Republican gains well in excess of my previous estimate of 61 seats. The Abramowitz model suggests a pickup of about 76 seats, but I wouldn’t take that at face value. After all, there is a great deal of uncertainty because we are dealing with unprecedented results, which Gallup is quick to acknowledge. A Republican vote margin of 15 points would more than double the party’s 1994 victory and it is about double its 1946 victory. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 1928 to find an election where the popular vote margin resembled anything close to what Gallup is predicting.
So, if Gallup is correct you can expect a big Republican tidal wave tomorrow. In excess of 60 seats and possibly as many as 90. Tsunami-like.
We’ll see how it goes—we can only hope that in this wave some of the corrupt barrons—Barney Frank, for example—get swept under. But even not, you can take solace that Nancy Pelosi, Henry Waxman, John Conyers and Barney Frank will take their chair gavels and go back to their seats in the minority. And not a moment too soon!
In the Senate I think the Republicans come up short of a majority, but again, if Gallup is correct it could happen. I predict they win at least eight seats currently held by Democrats—and if they are able to take Washington with Dino Rossi and California (which I have already predicted they will) then 10 seats will be in reach. It will be harder if Demorcat Joe Manchin wins in West Virginia and the “Bearded Marxist” Chris Coons beats O’Donnell in Delaware. But even at a 51-49 Democrat edge in the Senate, the Republicans will have a chance to ensure gridlock over the next two years. And in many cases, they will pick up Independent Joe Lieberman and Democrat Ben Nelson and be able get some legislation passed. If Obama vetoes it, fine: at least it’s on the record.
For an interesting voter guide tomorrow you can use to track key races across the country check out David Freddoso at the Washington Times here.
And get out and VOTE! It’s critical—this is THE most important mid-term election in a generation and it is so important to get this socialist train off the tracks!
